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cold-hearted reflections - Addendum

addendum / correction to last post:

The presentation of the strategic training portfolio is misunderstood by merging of strategic positioning, skill gaps and resource allocation with regard to the priority of resources allocation.

following, the unbundling and clarification

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cold-hearted reflections

training / qualification of employees, according to the drought crisis in the company back more an issue. When discussing the distribution of training budgets, a variety of viewpoints and arguments come into play.

is of course the issue of education and training located in several dimensions - personal objectives as part of employee appraisal, qualification as an Application incentive for potential employees, etc.

However, I would like from the perspective of a "number of people" on an essential aspect. Training budgets are - as all the resources a company - is limited. Therefore, these budgets are also subject to the categories of "effectiveness" and "efficiency".

The most important step in resource allocation to the effectiveness (the effectiveness of training measure is a separate chapter). This brings us inevitably to the question of the strategic role of a Qualification and the resultant priorities.

I recall the logical chain in strategy development

means that the skills required of employees and the strategic relevance resulting from the process requirements (example):

This is also the allocation of the budget components derived logically consistent - even although there is benefit-oriented access sober seem cold-hearted.

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Call Option in the world of real goods

real options analysis as a method for evaluating investments under uncertainty with options in several posts was an issue (see 2010, all 24 May).

For a presentation I just did a real shift option (equivalent to a call option) with reduced, simplified figures and parameters is short.

Company A has developed a new innovative product. This was done in close cooperation with suppliers, in the framework of this project, in turn, brought a technical innovation for mass production.
There were no agreements on exclusivity, as expected as Company A "First to Market" a sustained advantage over subsequent imitators.

The assessment of the market has However, last year changed dramatically. The sales opportunities for the product and thus seem attainable future margins to be very insecure with high variability.

consider Company A, with production and market introduction IMPOSE FINES and still having to buy from the supplier the exclusive rights to the solution for three years.

The question is: What is this exclusivity - ie, make the right investment decision within the next three years to be able to - worth it?

numbers:
The investment for the production start is (base period value t0) € 11 million
maturity = 10 years
cash flow from the product sales = € 3 million per annum (as I said - in simplified form, ie no start-up curve, etc ...)
rate discrete = remove 12% pa

to how the graphs below, the value of the option depends strongly on the expected volatility of future profit margins. are

In a volatility of 10% in the period t1 99.9% of the present value of future DB's 13433-25745 (see chart 1)
In this case, the option has no value (see Chart 3) The probability of
immediate investment is 100% (see Chart 4)

At a volatility of 50% is in the period t1 99.9% the present value of future DB's 3243-83875 (see Figure 2)
In this case, the option has a value of almost € over a million (see Chart 3)
The probability of the exercise ie the investment drops to 75% and is first year, 63.8% (see Chart 4)

Overall, the results fall for the option only at high volatilities clearly.
The reason is that assumed was that only the volumes are uncertain and that all current payments and receipts be proportional to the amount. Therefore, the contribution can not be negative.

Had ongoing fixed costs involved, the value of the option would already respond to low volatility increases more.



Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Chart 4

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BSC - All good things come in threes

Last Post is:
"right" indicators are thus based on a "right" strategy. If this is not only promising, but also along the entrepreneurial cause / effect chain formulated consistent result from the strategic aims (market processes Etc ...) the necessary measures in the structure of a BSC quasi automatically.
had
In subsequent discussions, I find that this requires more specific.

1. Strategic success position (SEP) are skills that enable to achieve, compared to the competition on average results.
2. These capabilities are targeted at the perfect fulfillment of the purchasing decision for the relevant customer segment factors (such as technical product quality, delivery, consulting, image, distribution channels, price) materialize in the visible to the customer special Produkt-/Marktleistung.
3. September Any specific needs with perfectly aligned processes and these in turn, appropriate management structures and staff.
4. Based on the knowledge structure of this effect can be developed in "opposite" direction, a logical target chain. See Figure 1
5. A consistently formed along the results chain strategy involves locking the layers: Finance -> Market Performance -> Processes -> Staff and management
6. Each level in turn be divided into realization and concretization steps: What do we want ( SEP) -> .. to achieve the goals -> with what .. existing or future skills - are> .. what measures necessary for that purpose.
7. The specification levels goals and measures require (force) measurable targets. See Figure 2
8. Schlussfogerung: ... so that the necessary measurement Great result in the structure of a BSC or less automatically.

Figure 1

Figure 2