Christopher Uckermann Vonitas

have real options are either cut off

A major reason for the almost complete lack of practical methods for the evaluation of real options is the use of models of financial mathematics.
As long as this happens, can not the methods to the requirements of practical suitability requirements.

financial options have other foundations as real options:

1) The nature of the option

financial options are for the purchase or sale of the underlying assets - so they are only a right in a particular way to dispose of the underlying.

The exercise is a real option, namely the existence of the Undertyings ahead - it is in effect the "springboard" to the real options - the option is an independent economic reality.

2) The assessment

In assessing the financial options in the Black Scholes world will replicate an option by a portfolio of stocks and cash (bond) dynamically. With the introduction of a risk-neutral probability measure (a "rebalancing" of possible outputs) will be counted as a risk-free rate discounted expected value of payoffs from the market a "fair game" and the option price.

exist in the world of real options, the above procedure for the evaluation necessary assumptions (arbitrary divisibility of projects and options, replication of the option, etc. ..) do not and are not necessary.
A Real Options is a course of action available to the changes of the original project (to change the future cash flows) makes at a given time, more or less sense. Connected to the exercise of the option changes in cash flows for each time point independently modeled and is subject to the recalculation of the same risk assessment as the "underlying"

3) The challenges

In the financial world is the great challenge of modeling the movement of the underlying. The effect of the option is one-dimensional and simple (buy or sell).

The real options the change in the underlying (the uncertainty of future cash flows based investment) is to define a lot simpler. The challenge is the multiplicity of sometimes interrelated possibilities for action - that is, build on each other and nesting options.

The only model I know that this model can in a simple and concise manner Opexar (see link) - although the method in the evaluation process or unnecessarily burdened the loops of the financial world. found

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evaluation of strategic planning and staff development

As in the previous two posts, can be the key strategic staff development activities (PE) from the requirements of market and products and processes derived. These requirements define the necessary expertise

• leadership
• social skills
• commitment
• motivation
• identification

are, however, fraught with uncertainties such discharges. While it is difficult to identify business requirements relatively clear in the further powers are the hypotheses about cause and effect a bit vague. be

over another bundle of fuzzy cause-effect hypotheses in the necessary skills the employees, the meaningful, effective measures derived PE.

Even if the transactions taking place the desired results on the processes crossing paths and market performance level, this is no verification of the hypothesis chain. More difficult is finding profit in the event of partial failure of actions.

The assumed causalities are assigned to two groups:

• The relationship between the "how man is what he does, how he was doing" and its performance (impact) on the market and process level.
• The relationship between measures of knowledge and personality development, the leadership and decision-making structure, the cultural trends, social and organizational environment "is like the man what he can as he goes," etc. on the one hand and the other part.

The big challenge is to document these hypotheses and to verify their validity.

elements of the strategic PE

Formal standard structure for the HR-Card in the BSC (Balanced Scorecard):
defines essential elements of the "As man is what he does and how he is." These are in the implementation of the company with its process- / product / market-cards (as if - then "relationships) to be weighted with regard to cross-linked and the assumed impact force.

Formal standard structure for possible development measures in relation to the above formal standard structure for the HR-Card:
Describes the state of the art, and identifies potential PE action in relation to the "how man is what he can and how he is. " These are in the implementation of concrete in the company and to be weighted with regard to the assumed impact force.

implementation of development measures and review of the plan compliant implementation.

evaluation the effectiveness of the measures on staff survey.
The survey instrument will deal:

• was learned that the measure is positive and meaningful.
• Did the staff to the subjective impression of improvement in terms of the assumed relationship.

test the hypotheses based on the survey results and due to the process or market performance measures

steps in detail

• detection of potential problems from different process or market requirements
• definition of the relationship to one another
• down HR assignments Cards
• down in the background to building skills, techniques, etc. (Law, Communications & Rhetoric, etc.) If
• structured interview based on assignments HR-Cards
• determining the actual portfolio (see previous post)
• definition development potential
• down the individual measures
• combining the individual measures of HR Cards to PE program (after deposited of measures or selection due to current market offerings)
• implementation PE program
• evaluation