Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Christopher Uckermann Vonitas

have real options are either cut off

A major reason for the almost complete lack of practical methods for the evaluation of real options is the use of models of financial mathematics.
As long as this happens, can not the methods to the requirements of practical suitability requirements.

financial options have other foundations as real options:

1) The nature of the option

financial options are for the purchase or sale of the underlying assets - so they are only a right in a particular way to dispose of the underlying.

The exercise is a real option, namely the existence of the Undertyings ahead - it is in effect the "springboard" to the real options - the option is an independent economic reality.

2) The assessment

In assessing the financial options in the Black Scholes world will replicate an option by a portfolio of stocks and cash (bond) dynamically. With the introduction of a risk-neutral probability measure (a "rebalancing" of possible outputs) will be counted as a risk-free rate discounted expected value of payoffs from the market a "fair game" and the option price.

exist in the world of real options, the above procedure for the evaluation necessary assumptions (arbitrary divisibility of projects and options, replication of the option, etc. ..) do not and are not necessary.
A Real Options is a course of action available to the changes of the original project (to change the future cash flows) makes at a given time, more or less sense. Connected to the exercise of the option changes in cash flows for each time point independently modeled and is subject to the recalculation of the same risk assessment as the "underlying"

3) The challenges

In the financial world is the great challenge of modeling the movement of the underlying. The effect of the option is one-dimensional and simple (buy or sell).

The real options the change in the underlying (the uncertainty of future cash flows based investment) is to define a lot simpler. The challenge is the multiplicity of sometimes interrelated possibilities for action - that is, build on each other and nesting options.

The only model I know that this model can in a simple and concise manner Opexar (see link) - although the method in the evaluation process or unnecessarily burdened the loops of the financial world. found

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